Your guide to the debates
A couple friends have asked me what I think is going to happen in the debates, so I decided to write a post on it here. I have no experience predicting Presidential debates, so don't bet on any of this.
Obama strengths:
He's the current President, he's leading in the polls and he flew to the debate on Air Force One. Don't underestimate the power of incumbency when it comes to building up your confidence. If he's wise, he'll keep that in check. Mitt Romney is no idiot, as much as I'd like him to be one. Obama's biggest accomplishment is Obamacare, and America likes it. If you ask people about individual elements of Obamacare, the entire country supports it. It's only when you say "do you like the President's health care overhaul?" that people say "no way!," and that's typically because they hate the President anyway. "Should we deny health coverage to kids because they're sick?" "Should we allow open market competition among insurance companies to offer competitive, low-cost plans for self-employed and uninsured people?" "Should we ask our fellow citizens to pay for the emergency room costs incurred by people who can afford insurance but are too cheap to buy it?" Health insurance is a major issue for the middle class, and the middle class likes almost every element of Obamacare if you present them independently. They think he saved the auto industry. They like the 18 tax cuts he's passed for small businesses. They like the payroll tax cut, and the extension of the Bush tax cuts for non-millionaires.
Obama weaknesses:
He hasn't fixed the economy. The American electorate is stupid enough to think that 1) the President controls the economy and 2) four years is a reasonable amount of time to give someone (who controls the economy) to turn it around. He sound arrogant. He talks down to people. The GOP has successfully led many people to believe that the real plan behind Obamacare is to kill your grandmother. He's black. He has failed to deliver on many of the key promises of his campaign, specifically: he promised to raise taxes on the rich, end income tax for anyone making under $50K, and overhaul America's crumbling infrastructure. He has done none of these things.
Romney's strength:
He's smart and he looks like a President. He's white - that alone gets him 20% of the GOP vote in Louisiana and 16% in Kentucky. He is running on a pro-business anti-government agenda, which is popular with the stupid American electorate who thinks the President controls the economy. He's running on the 30+ year old "tax cuts + defense spending" GOP platform that Bush senior used. Oh wait, Bush senior lied about no new taxes. He doesn't think gay people should get married and he doesn't think women should be allowed to get abortions - these issues don't matter for the economy but they do matter to a lot of people voting this fall.
Romney's weakness:
He's changed his position on everything at least 5 times. He's a filthy rich white guy who dodges taxes whenever possible and wants us to believe that if we'd just cut his taxes some more, this country would be on the road to recovery. He makes $10,000 bets as a joke. He agrees with the Supreme Court that corporations are people, so they should be allowed unlimited campaign contributions. He bankrupted 30% of the companies he invested in while he was running Bain capital. When Romneycare became the model for Obamacare, Romney decided the whole thing was a terrible idea. He's Mormon, and there are still religious nuts out there who think that's a cult. He hasn't actually been employed in over 10 years, but asks people to believe he understands the working man. He says 47% of Americans are lazy people who feel like they are entitled to live off the government (his words, not mine).
Obama strengths:
He's the current President, he's leading in the polls and he flew to the debate on Air Force One. Don't underestimate the power of incumbency when it comes to building up your confidence. If he's wise, he'll keep that in check. Mitt Romney is no idiot, as much as I'd like him to be one. Obama's biggest accomplishment is Obamacare, and America likes it. If you ask people about individual elements of Obamacare, the entire country supports it. It's only when you say "do you like the President's health care overhaul?" that people say "no way!," and that's typically because they hate the President anyway. "Should we deny health coverage to kids because they're sick?" "Should we allow open market competition among insurance companies to offer competitive, low-cost plans for self-employed and uninsured people?" "Should we ask our fellow citizens to pay for the emergency room costs incurred by people who can afford insurance but are too cheap to buy it?" Health insurance is a major issue for the middle class, and the middle class likes almost every element of Obamacare if you present them independently. They think he saved the auto industry. They like the 18 tax cuts he's passed for small businesses. They like the payroll tax cut, and the extension of the Bush tax cuts for non-millionaires.
Obama weaknesses:
He hasn't fixed the economy. The American electorate is stupid enough to think that 1) the President controls the economy and 2) four years is a reasonable amount of time to give someone (who controls the economy) to turn it around. He sound arrogant. He talks down to people. The GOP has successfully led many people to believe that the real plan behind Obamacare is to kill your grandmother. He's black. He has failed to deliver on many of the key promises of his campaign, specifically: he promised to raise taxes on the rich, end income tax for anyone making under $50K, and overhaul America's crumbling infrastructure. He has done none of these things.
Romney's strength:
He's smart and he looks like a President. He's white - that alone gets him 20% of the GOP vote in Louisiana and 16% in Kentucky. He is running on a pro-business anti-government agenda, which is popular with the stupid American electorate who thinks the President controls the economy. He's running on the 30+ year old "tax cuts + defense spending" GOP platform that Bush senior used. Oh wait, Bush senior lied about no new taxes. He doesn't think gay people should get married and he doesn't think women should be allowed to get abortions - these issues don't matter for the economy but they do matter to a lot of people voting this fall.
Romney's weakness:
He's changed his position on everything at least 5 times. He's a filthy rich white guy who dodges taxes whenever possible and wants us to believe that if we'd just cut his taxes some more, this country would be on the road to recovery. He makes $10,000 bets as a joke. He agrees with the Supreme Court that corporations are people, so they should be allowed unlimited campaign contributions. He bankrupted 30% of the companies he invested in while he was running Bain capital. When Romneycare became the model for Obamacare, Romney decided the whole thing was a terrible idea. He's Mormon, and there are still religious nuts out there who think that's a cult. He hasn't actually been employed in over 10 years, but asks people to believe he understands the working man. He says 47% of Americans are lazy people who feel like they are entitled to live off the government (his words, not mine).
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