Reflections on elections
I'm by no means an expert on interpreting elections, but since any clown with a twitter account can be president, I figured I'd at least weigh in on what I think happened here in Kentucky, and what that might mean for the year ahead.
Kentucky is what I'd characterize as a modern-day conservative state. By that I mean, there are plenty of counties in this state where, if they listen to any news at all, it's Fox. KY voted for Trump over Hillary by a full 30 percentage point margin. These KY conservatives support a free press in the same way that Trump does, which is to say, only when the press is serving as a propaganda/reinforcement engine for their existing viewpoints. They support freedom of religion as long as that religion involves sweet little baby Jesus, the 10 commandments on public display, and tax breaks for Noah's Ark and the Creation Museum. When the NRA ran a campaign in 2008 that "Obama is coming for your guns" and then again in 2012 that "we know he didn't take your guns yet, but he's totally been scheming for four years how to start taking them if he gets re-elected" and then again in 2016 that "we know Obama still hasn't taken your guns, but that's because Hillary is the one who really wants to take them..." that messaging played really well here.
They believe in smaller government staying out of our lives, except they want to dictate who you can marry and what conversations women can and cannot have with their physicians. "Handouts" to poor people are socialism, buthandouts crop supports to farmers are sacred. And somehow, with a base that's heavily vested in the agriculture industry, they're fighting tooth and nail against any acknowledgement that we're experiencing climate change, or that immigrants are actually powering that agriculture industry. "They're taking jobs from Americans" is more comfortable for them to say than the truth that immigrants are doing the farm jobs that waspy teenagers are too lazy for. Contrary to, well, facts, coal has not been dying since the 1970s, it's been dying since lllllliberal Obama declared war on it. THAT kind of conservative.
These are broad generalizations of course, but so are elections. I love Kentucky because its citizens hold a diversity of viewpoints and perspectives, particularly in Lexington. I'm focusing in on Kentucky conservatives only because they're the ones who elected Bevin in 2015.
In our state elections, it's not surprising that a lot of the big offices are held by Republicans, or that we have a Republican majority in the state legislature. Hell, these folks think Rand Paul and Mitch McConnell are doing a bang up job.
But, #aboutLastNight. Look at the GOP victory margins in some of the big races: they won Attorney
General by 15%, agriculture commissioner by 20%, State treasurer by 20%, State Auditor by 14% - and we had REALLY high voter turnout (yay Kentucky!). State-wide we saw 41% turnout, Louisville and Lexington had 46% turnout, and Frankfort even saw 57%!!! Yay Kentucky! That's still lower than national averages, but it's also up from just 30% in our last governor's race.
So how, then, did Matt Bevin lose? One story line, which is technically accurate, will be that it was super close and he didn't lose by much. Ignore that one, because it doesn't look at the big picture. What we should really be asking is, why did the ~17% margin that the GOP enjoyed in other races vanish for the governor's race? What happened to the 9% margin of victory that Bevin enjoyed in the 2015 governor's race?
This is the music that the GOP needs to face: after all the blustery stump speeches and "throw some red meat to the base" attack ads, once you're in office, what you do, AND how you act, matters. In particular, it matters to moderates, swing voters, and suburbanites. Bevin took medicaid away from 460,000 Kentuckians. They noticed. When teachers went on strike to protest cuts to their pensions, Bevin literally assigned them responsibility for kids being sexually assaulted and murdered (due to schools being closed). He shook up every state-wide board and stacked it with cronies. Bevin lied, broke promises, and was notorious for being caught saying "I never said that" when in fact he did say [whatever], on camera during a public speech. In short, he was crass and could not be trusted to keep his word, and that's behavior that crosses party lines in terms of being unacceptable. His loyalists don't care of course, but enough Kentuckians did that, compared to other state-wide races and even his own previous margin of victory, he lost a ton of support during his 4 years in office.
This is the point where I think Donald Trump and the national GOP should take notice. Trump's biggest liability is his big mouth. He can't shut up. He is crass, and cannot be trusted to keep his word. He's been caught lying, A LOT. The rhetoric from the party loyalists when he was elected was largely "he'll calm down and act presidential once he's in office." He has not. His trade war has been extremely costly for farmers. His private immigration concentration camps are a stain on a nation founded by immigrants. He is a bully hiding behind a twitter account. He's an embarrassment at home and abroad. He has compromised our national security in numerous ways. I think that, just maybe, those same moderates, swing voters and suburbanites, the Obama-turned-Trump voters, are tired of his shenanigans. I hope so, anyway. The other elephant in the room though is, can the Dems find a likable, moderate candidate with broad appeal to independents?
Kentucky is what I'd characterize as a modern-day conservative state. By that I mean, there are plenty of counties in this state where, if they listen to any news at all, it's Fox. KY voted for Trump over Hillary by a full 30 percentage point margin. These KY conservatives support a free press in the same way that Trump does, which is to say, only when the press is serving as a propaganda/reinforcement engine for their existing viewpoints. They support freedom of religion as long as that religion involves sweet little baby Jesus, the 10 commandments on public display, and tax breaks for Noah's Ark and the Creation Museum. When the NRA ran a campaign in 2008 that "Obama is coming for your guns" and then again in 2012 that "we know he didn't take your guns yet, but he's totally been scheming for four years how to start taking them if he gets re-elected" and then again in 2016 that "we know Obama still hasn't taken your guns, but that's because Hillary is the one who really wants to take them..." that messaging played really well here.
They believe in smaller government staying out of our lives, except they want to dictate who you can marry and what conversations women can and cannot have with their physicians. "Handouts" to poor people are socialism, but
These are broad generalizations of course, but so are elections. I love Kentucky because its citizens hold a diversity of viewpoints and perspectives, particularly in Lexington. I'm focusing in on Kentucky conservatives only because they're the ones who elected Bevin in 2015.
In our state elections, it's not surprising that a lot of the big offices are held by Republicans, or that we have a Republican majority in the state legislature. Hell, these folks think Rand Paul and Mitch McConnell are doing a bang up job.
But, #aboutLastNight. Look at the GOP victory margins in some of the big races: they won Attorney
General by 15%, agriculture commissioner by 20%, State treasurer by 20%, State Auditor by 14% - and we had REALLY high voter turnout (yay Kentucky!). State-wide we saw 41% turnout, Louisville and Lexington had 46% turnout, and Frankfort even saw 57%!!! Yay Kentucky! That's still lower than national averages, but it's also up from just 30% in our last governor's race.
So how, then, did Matt Bevin lose? One story line, which is technically accurate, will be that it was super close and he didn't lose by much. Ignore that one, because it doesn't look at the big picture. What we should really be asking is, why did the ~17% margin that the GOP enjoyed in other races vanish for the governor's race? What happened to the 9% margin of victory that Bevin enjoyed in the 2015 governor's race?
This is the music that the GOP needs to face: after all the blustery stump speeches and "throw some red meat to the base" attack ads, once you're in office, what you do, AND how you act, matters. In particular, it matters to moderates, swing voters, and suburbanites. Bevin took medicaid away from 460,000 Kentuckians. They noticed. When teachers went on strike to protest cuts to their pensions, Bevin literally assigned them responsibility for kids being sexually assaulted and murdered (due to schools being closed). He shook up every state-wide board and stacked it with cronies. Bevin lied, broke promises, and was notorious for being caught saying "I never said that" when in fact he did say [whatever], on camera during a public speech. In short, he was crass and could not be trusted to keep his word, and that's behavior that crosses party lines in terms of being unacceptable. His loyalists don't care of course, but enough Kentuckians did that, compared to other state-wide races and even his own previous margin of victory, he lost a ton of support during his 4 years in office.
This is the point where I think Donald Trump and the national GOP should take notice. Trump's biggest liability is his big mouth. He can't shut up. He is crass, and cannot be trusted to keep his word. He's been caught lying, A LOT. The rhetoric from the party loyalists when he was elected was largely "he'll calm down and act presidential once he's in office." He has not. His trade war has been extremely costly for farmers. His private immigration concentration camps are a stain on a nation founded by immigrants. He is a bully hiding behind a twitter account. He's an embarrassment at home and abroad. He has compromised our national security in numerous ways. I think that, just maybe, those same moderates, swing voters and suburbanites, the Obama-turned-Trump voters, are tired of his shenanigans. I hope so, anyway. The other elephant in the room though is, can the Dems find a likable, moderate candidate with broad appeal to independents?
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