What will happen?!
A couple friends have asked me this week what will happen if Trump wins. The fact that we're even considering this possibility is still a shock to me, but Nate Silver has upped Trump's chances to 33%, so I suppose we'd better prepare ourselves for it.
My short answer is "not much." As I've said before, and anyone who paid attention in US Government class will tell you, the presidency is an intentionally impotent position. We were trying to NOT create a king, remember? This is why the people who were scared Obama was going to turn us into a socialist state and take away everyone's guns were being ridiculous. "Well he did make us socialist - what about Obamacare?!" is all I need to hear from someone to confirm it's not worth my time to try and explain socialism to them.
Our standing in the world is already lowered, thanks to picking the two least like-able people in the US and putting them on a Presidential ballot. Yes, I've made fun of Trump a lot. And the comedians have had a field day with him, but that's because it's soooooo easy! The truth is, I can't say that I'm really supportive of Hillary. She lacks the charisma that her husband has. She's definitely one of the most qualified people to run for the office, but that's never mattered. Harry Truman was a tailor and he ended up being the guy who had to "push the button" to nuke Japan and end the war.
We know Trump is a bigot because he has told us this. It's not hidden, it's not veiled, it's not open to interpretation. Ban Muslims, build a wall, and of course his great relationship with "the blacks," whose interests concern him so much, he's encouraged his supporters to be extra vigilant by going to black neighborhoods to look for fraud at the polling places. What a nice guy. Trump is a con man who is highlighting the worst of America - xenophobia, bigotry, misogyny - and showing just how much of that stuff exists. It should be a lesson to us all to take a second look at our family, friends, and neighbors and ask which ones are truly in 2016 versus longing for 1956. Trump's numbers are real, and while a lot of people are supporting him because they hate Hillary, most of his supporters are also well aware of what Trump stands for, AND IT DOESN'T BOTHER THEM.
I don't think the stock market will crash, I don't think he'll start WWIII (though his temper suggests the risk there is greater than zero). I do think there is a >50% chance he won't last 4 years due to impeachment. He has 75 lawsuits pending against him, so that would be a new record for a President entering office. Most of those are civil suits, but at least two of them are criminal matters. And while the GOP head of the FBI has been a regular chatty Kathy about investigations that may or may not involve Mrs. Clinton, he's been oddly silent on the two open investigations we know about involving Trump (Trump University and his ties to Russia).
Sadly, I'm also not sure Mrs. Clinton will change much here in the US if she wins. Obamacare is a mess, largely due to half-assed implementation by some states and others not participating at all. I suspect many states will still be out to protect their county clerks and bakers from those crazy gay couples that most bakers just call "customers." The banks will still be corrupt, workers will have near zero rights, the wealth gap will continue to accelerate and I doubt she'll tackle any serious issues like entitlements, reeling in spending, or closing Guantanamo. I'm sure if she does try to tackle any of that stuff, the GOP will do its best to continue its obstructionist tradition. That's worked so well for them, it will have lost them 3 presidencies if she wins. At least we can count on one point of stability: Mitch McConnell will still be a fat cat DC power broker who screws KY coal miners to help out the mine owners.
My short answer is "not much." As I've said before, and anyone who paid attention in US Government class will tell you, the presidency is an intentionally impotent position. We were trying to NOT create a king, remember? This is why the people who were scared Obama was going to turn us into a socialist state and take away everyone's guns were being ridiculous. "Well he did make us socialist - what about Obamacare?!" is all I need to hear from someone to confirm it's not worth my time to try and explain socialism to them.
Our standing in the world is already lowered, thanks to picking the two least like-able people in the US and putting them on a Presidential ballot. Yes, I've made fun of Trump a lot. And the comedians have had a field day with him, but that's because it's soooooo easy! The truth is, I can't say that I'm really supportive of Hillary. She lacks the charisma that her husband has. She's definitely one of the most qualified people to run for the office, but that's never mattered. Harry Truman was a tailor and he ended up being the guy who had to "push the button" to nuke Japan and end the war.
We know Trump is a bigot because he has told us this. It's not hidden, it's not veiled, it's not open to interpretation. Ban Muslims, build a wall, and of course his great relationship with "the blacks," whose interests concern him so much, he's encouraged his supporters to be extra vigilant by going to black neighborhoods to look for fraud at the polling places. What a nice guy. Trump is a con man who is highlighting the worst of America - xenophobia, bigotry, misogyny - and showing just how much of that stuff exists. It should be a lesson to us all to take a second look at our family, friends, and neighbors and ask which ones are truly in 2016 versus longing for 1956. Trump's numbers are real, and while a lot of people are supporting him because they hate Hillary, most of his supporters are also well aware of what Trump stands for, AND IT DOESN'T BOTHER THEM.
I don't think the stock market will crash, I don't think he'll start WWIII (though his temper suggests the risk there is greater than zero). I do think there is a >50% chance he won't last 4 years due to impeachment. He has 75 lawsuits pending against him, so that would be a new record for a President entering office. Most of those are civil suits, but at least two of them are criminal matters. And while the GOP head of the FBI has been a regular chatty Kathy about investigations that may or may not involve Mrs. Clinton, he's been oddly silent on the two open investigations we know about involving Trump (Trump University and his ties to Russia).
Sadly, I'm also not sure Mrs. Clinton will change much here in the US if she wins. Obamacare is a mess, largely due to half-assed implementation by some states and others not participating at all. I suspect many states will still be out to protect their county clerks and bakers from those crazy gay couples that most bakers just call "customers." The banks will still be corrupt, workers will have near zero rights, the wealth gap will continue to accelerate and I doubt she'll tackle any serious issues like entitlements, reeling in spending, or closing Guantanamo. I'm sure if she does try to tackle any of that stuff, the GOP will do its best to continue its obstructionist tradition. That's worked so well for them, it will have lost them 3 presidencies if she wins. At least we can count on one point of stability: Mitch McConnell will still be a fat cat DC power broker who screws KY coal miners to help out the mine owners.
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